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Enrique Zuazúa Finance In these weeks in which

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Enrique Zuazúa Finance In these weeks in which

 

COVID19 is being the undisputed protagonist of our lives. They have been filled with numbers. Graphic representations. Mathematics. In short. Perhaps the key lies in a surprising but definitely true fact that Albert Einstein (recently celebrated the 65th anniversary of his death). Like so many other wise men. Recognized on more than one occasion: How is it possible that Mathematics. A product of human thought. Are so admirably suited to the objects of nature? Einstein was right. The ability of Mathematics to explain what happens around us is amazing. And perhaps that is why the media is filled with articles with data and accounts that speak of the number of infected (I) by the virus.

Recovered (R) from the infection and susceptible (S) to being infected. These are the basic variables that the basic SIR models in epidemiology consider. The work of W. Kermack and A. Mckendrick . Published in the Proceedings of the Royal Society of London in 1927. Who proposed the SIR model in a visionary way. Definitely influenced the future of the field. And. As often happens with the classics. Its reading. Even today. Almost a hundred years later. Is particularly transparent. Clarifying and recommendable . Hence its enormous influence.

Why should a new epidemic like COVID19

Obey the dictates of already known mathematical equations? The authors explained that the dynamics of the epidemic can be followed through a set of differential equations that. Over time. Indicate how these three variables. R. S and I. Change . Of course we are interested in that I. The number of infected. Is the smallest possible. And that those recovered. R. The maximum. Unfortunately there is a difference between both variables. Which we could denote with the M for death. The most gloomy of the protagonists of this sad story that has knocked on our door with a great knock after having done it first in the Far East. To reach us having previously visited closer countries.

Without ever noticing what the proverbial popular wisdom already warns us: “When you see your neighbor’s beard cut. Put yours to soak.” Analyzing the obstinacy of many fellow citizens in believing that “ Spain is different ” would be applicable. Would take a long time and is possibly unnecessary. Especially when it comes to writing for a forum made up of leaders from the business world. Perfectly aware that You can rarely escape the domino effect. But it is certainly pertinent to ask how the SIR equations can hold for all epidemics (from the Greek epi (over) and demos (people)). Old and new: plague. Smallpox. Cholera. AIDS. Malaria . Etc.

One might think that

At best. A mathematical model should be able to describe past events. But why should a new epidemic like COVID19 obey the dictates of already known mathematical equations? Einstein was right. The ability of Mathematics to explain what happens around us is surprising In this lies precisely the strength of Mathematics . In its universal validity. But it is more than possible that the reader is not willing to accept this principle of universality so easily. And he would be right to do so. In fact. For the SIR model to approximate reality. The parameters that govern its expansion must be adjusted and. Among them. One of the most important is the basic reproductive number.

 

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